Can this Trump-backed car dealer unseat the Ohio Democrat and win Republicans the Senate-

Bernie Moreno, who faced multiple wage-theft lawsuits last year, is now challenging incumbent Senator Sherrod Brown in Ohio.

Stephen Starr reports from Moraine, Ohio, on October 25, 2024. When Sherrod Brown first secured a seat in the U.S. Senate in 2006, Ohio seemed like a stronghold for Democrats, bolstered by its urban centers and manufacturing base. Barack Obama successfully claimed the state in both 2008 and 2012, and Democrats thrived in the political landscape. Analysts closely monitored Ohio’s voting trends due to its reputation as a bellwether state.

However, in the ensuing years, Ohio’s demographics have shifted; the state has aged, become whiter, and leaned more conservative. The manufacturing sector has declined, and population growth has stagnated. Currently, Brown stands as the sole Democrat holding a statewide office. As he approaches an essential Senate election against former luxury car dealer Bernie Moreno, the stakes are high—not just for Brown, but for the Democratic Party’s control of the Senate.

Retaining Brown’s seat is crucial for Democrats’ hopes to maintain their majority. A victory for Brown would be significant in a state where Republicans have effectively manipulated district maps to their benefit, holding a supermajority in the legislature and controlling key executive positions, including that of the governor. Ohio’s other U.S. Senate seat is occupied by JD Vance, who was endorsed by Trump.

Brown faces a notable challenge in Moreno, particularly as this will be the first election cycle he has run in tandem with Donald Trump on the ballot.

For residents like James Spencer, a 27-year Moraine local and retired construction contractor, Trump’s endorsement of Moreno is pivotal to his vote. Spencer expressed his dissatisfaction over the takeover of the local General Motors plant by a Chinese firm, Fuyao Glass, which once employed thousands of workers. He’s witnessed a steady decline in the area’s fortunes and feels this narrative has been seized by both Trump and Moreno.

While Moreno and Trump may resonate with voters like Spencer, Brown hopes his reputation as a proponent of workers’ rights will carry him through. His campaign has worked hard to distance him from the Biden administration, despite the federal funds that flowed into Ohio under his leadership.

“Brown has crossover appeal among Ohioans,” noted Thomas Sutton, a political science professor at Baldwin Wallace University. “The labor vote, which has increasingly leaned toward Trump, still supports Brown. He shares specific positions with Trump regarding protecting local industries and supporting farmers.”

Brown’s campaign ads feature him in an aggressive light, highlighting his tough immigration stance. Critics argue that despite his labor-friendly image, he’s largely operated within political circles, lacking extensive non-political work experience.

While Brown’s campaign declined to comment, emails regarding Moreno’s campaign went unanswered. Conversely, Trump’s backing of Moreno has invigorated his base, with Sutton commenting on his effective use of advertising strategies that portray Brown as aligned with the Biden administration.

Moreno’s campaign has received substantial financial backing, including a $40 million investment from a cryptocurrency industry PAC. While some polls suggest Moreno holds a slight lead, others indicate a neck-and-neck race.

However, Moreno’s past includes settling wage-theft lawsuits, costing him over $400,000, and comments on reproductive rights that have drawn criticism. Democratic candidate Amy Cox, running this year to challenge a Republican incumbent, remarked, “When you take away women’s abortion rights, you take away healthcare.”

Recent developments regarding a bribery scandal involving prominent Ohio Republicans and the incarceration of former statehouse speaker Larry Householder for racketeering have further complicated matters for the GOP.

As Sutton points out, the upcoming election will likely hinge on turnout in Ohio’s urban centers—Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati—contrasting with the typical voter turnout seen in more rural, Republican-dominated areas.

For Spencer, who resides near the Fuyao Glass factory in Moraine, Moreno’s advertisements highlighting Brown’s immigration record resonate deeply. “I’m hoping that if Trump and JD Vance get in, they will address what’s happening over there,” he said.

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