By hannover-web.com On October 17, China’s State Post Bureau shared insights through their official WeChat account, projecting that the China Express Development Index will reach 442.5 in September 2024, marking a 9% increase year-on-year. This index encompasses various dimensions including the development scale index at 539.3, service quality index at 688.1, development capability index at 224.4, and development trend index at 69.7, which reflect increases of 24.2%, 2.2%, 0.4%, and 3.9% respectively compared to the previous year. The month of September has shown robust impetus for the express delivery market, supported by steady expansion, deeper industry integration, and enhanced cross-border service capabilities.
Looking closer at the figures for September, the development scale index stands at 539.3—a remarkable 24.2% increase compared to the previous year. It is estimated that express delivery volume will see an 18.5% year-on-year growth, while revenue is anticipated to rise by around 13%. Throughout the first three quarters, the express delivery market has maintained rapid growth dynamics, surpassing 120 billion parcels in volume and over one trillion yuan in revenue.
What factors contributed to this significant growth? First, there is a strengthening foundation of development momentum. Excluding the Spring Festival impact, the monthly growth rate has consistently remained around 20%. Since May, monthly express delivery volume has frequently exceeded 14 billion pieces, highlighting an increasingly critical role in promoting consumption and facilitating production. Notably, during the Mid-Autumn Festival from September 15 to 17, the industry collected 1.307 billion parcels, reflecting a 35.4% increase from the previous year’s holiday. Delivery numbers also soared, reaching 1.407 billion parcels—up by 45.7%, effectively meeting holiday market demands with improved peak delivery capabilities.
Second, there’s a growing balance in regional development. In the first three quarters, the express delivery volume growth rates in the central and western regions are projected to exceed 30% and 35% respectively, outperforming the national average. This enhancement in service availability, particularly in areas like Xinjiang and Tibet, has catalyzed substantial growth in the express delivery business across the northwest and southwest, with provinces like Shaanxi, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, and Guizhou expected to see growth rates above 45%.
Third, new consumer models are energizing the market. The rise of live commerce and short video sales has rapidly expanded the express delivery sector. Under policies promoting the exchange of old consumer goods for new, there’s been a noticeable demand for smart home devices, green appliances, fresh seasonal goods, fitness and health products, and floral arrangements, indicating that express delivery companies are playing a pivotal role in fostering new consumption patterns.
In terms of service quality, the service quality index for September reached 688.1, a 2.2% increase year-on-year. Satisfaction levels are projected to average 83.8, up by 0.6 points, and the timely delivery rate in key regions is expected to be 83.1%, a gain of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous year.
The improvements in service extend to various demographics. In partnership with universities, express delivery companies have set up on-campus service stations providing streamlined delivery services, thereby facilitating hassle-free student transitions between home and school. Companies are also exploring smart healthcare delivery options that encompass a wide range of products, integrating advanced technologies like drones and smart lockers to ensure traceability and efficiency in logistics.
Overall, the development capability index settled at 224.4 with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.4%. The express delivery sector is increasingly enhancing its foundational capacity by launching dedicated logistics hubs and optimizing operational efficiencies. For instance, new international air routes have been established to bolster global connectivity, while novel ground transport models are being introduced in several cities.
As for the future, a development trend index of 69.7 signifies expected growth, buoyed by the adoption of innovative technologies and strategies aimed at boosting service capability during peak seasons. Analysts project that the sector will continue on a steady growth trajectory in the fourth quarter, positioning it well to meet evolving consumer needs.
