In Las Vegas, housing could make or break the battle for the White House

Nevada, once hailed for its affordable living, is now witnessing a sharp increase in housing prices and rents. How does this situation create opportunities for Trump?

Reporting from Las Vegas, Lauren Aratani observes the sweltering heat of 105°F in Henderson, a suburb of Las Vegas. The streets are nearly empty, with yards more likely to feature pebbles than grass, and autumn decorations look out of place in the heat.

Andrew Clarke, an organizer with For Our Future Nevada, approaches a ranch-style home and knocks on the door. A barking dog sounds from within. “Hi, I’m Andrew, an organizer with For Our Future Nevada. Is Jennifer home?” he asks with a smile. The response? Jennifer no longer resides there.

“Thank you, sir! Have a great day,” Clarke replies, stepping away without missing a beat.

For organizers like Clarke, not finding a specific voter isn’t a setback. Their mission isn’t just about rallying individuals for Harris; it’s focused on establishing a robust Democratic base and ensuring that voters make it to the polls.

As this election season unfolds, public perception of the economy remains a crucial factor that could greatly influence Clarke’s efforts. Yet, Democrats are navigating a challenging landscape; inflation soared to 9.1% in the summer of 2022, severely impacting purchasing power across the nation—a daunting sign for an incumbent administration.

In Las Vegas, both Democrats and Republicans acknowledge the precarious state of the economy and housing market. Following the pandemic’s shutdown, Nevada experienced the highest unemployment rate in the U.S., peaking at 30% in April 2020. While that has improved to 5% now, residents are still facing significant housing challenges. The median home price in the Las Vegas area jumped from $345,000 in August 2020 to $480,000 just last month, significantly outpacing the national average.

Many residents of Clark County originally moved to Las Vegas for its affordability, especially compared to neighboring California, where median home prices have surpassed $900,000. But what happens when that affordable sanctuary becomes financially unreachable?

“Rents have spiked, sales prices are up, and interest rates are climbing,” says Linda Rheinberger, a local real estate agent. “It’s tough for those who once viewed Las Vegas as an affordable place to live before the pandemic hit.”

The rise of remote work has attracted some Californians to Nevada, looking for bigger homes at lower prices. “Some are making cash buys after selling their homes in pricier markets,” Rheinberger points out. “How can a middle-class person compete when relying on mortgages or loans?”

For many, the dream of owning a home feels increasingly distant. Carlos Velis, a retired sportswriter, revealed that despite saving for a home, the couple’s rent has surged from $1,200 to $1,950. Buying a house seems unattainable, even with good credit. “Rent keeps climbing while salaries stagnate,” Velis expresses in Spanish. “It feels unfair.”

Danielle Aio, a cocktail waitress at the Cosmopolitan, shares a similar plight. She moved to Vegas from Hawaii in 2019, hoping to find a home one day. “Now, interest rates are soaring, and housing costs have skyrocketed,” she laments, noting her rent jumped from $1,180 to $1,640 over four years.

Kelly-Lynn Carvalho, a manager at Wynn Las Vegas who relocated from Honolulu after her fiancé lost his job, reflects on their predicament: “We moved partly because of the lack of state income tax and a better economy… but purchasing a home seems impossible with rising prices and utility costs.”

While inflation appears to be easing and Harris has introduced housing proposals as part of her economic strategy, public sentiment may prove challenging for her campaign. Some Nevadans attribute the economic hardships to the Democratic administration. Carvalho, still undecided, finds herself leaning toward Trump because of his business acumen.

“I don’t agree with his methods, but his results during his presidency are clear,” she acknowledges. “If Trump had been elected instead of Biden in 2020, I think he would have treated it like a business, and we’d be in a better place.”

Dr. Aaron Adaoag, a local physician, appreciates Trump’s business-oriented approach to government spending. “While I don’t agree with him on issues like women’s rights, I do think we need a businessman in office—someone adept at managing finances,” he remarks.

Despite facing challenges in swing states like Nevada, Harris’s candidacy has generated renewed excitement among grassroots organizers. “Since she announced her campaign, there’s been a noticeable increase in energy around her,” Clarke notes, mentioning a rise in volunteers eager to campaign for Harris.

“Previously, people showed little enthusiasm for either Biden or Trump; they felt powerless,” he adds. “That attitude is shifting.”

In response, influential organizations like the culinary union, representing over 60,000 service workers, are engaging in door-to-door efforts to support Harris, ensuring that union voices are amplified ahead of the election.

Eileen Scott, a cocktail waitress at Harrah’s, plans to mobilize fellow union members behind Harris due to her long-standing support for labor rights. “If Trump wins, I fear one of his first actions could be to undermine the union,” she expresses. “We must prevent that.”

While Trump has shown interest in appealing to union members with a no-tax policy on tips, union leaders are skeptical, dismissing it as an empty campaign promise. “Trump is notorious for making such promises,” remarks Ted Pappageorge of the culinary union, emphasizing that the real concern remains fair wages for tipped workers.

Yet, Aio notes a divide among her colleagues, where some are tempted by Trump’s promises while others, like herself, firmly oppose him. “I just don’t want him as president. [His tax promise] is minor compared to the potential challenges of four years under him.”

Other proactive groups, like Make the Road Nevada, are gearing up to reach out to Hispanic voters—a key demographic in Las Vegas. Velis, a volunteer with the organization, notes a trend among local Latinos leaning toward Trump, attributing rising inflation to the Biden administration. “Many of my family and friends believe Trump is the better choice for the economy,” he states.

However, Harris’s candidacy inspires hope for Velis. “As a Democrat, it renews my motivation to keep pushing forward. The party is now emphasizing the positive steps we can take.”

While Trump is likely to secure a significant share of votes in Nevada, as past elections have shown, grassroots efforts by Democratic organizers have shifted political dynamics for their candidates over the last two decades. The question now is whether the momentum behind Harris will hold up as the election approaches.

“The races have been tight lately; it could go either way,” observes Thom Reilly, an experienced county manager. “Trump probably would have beaten Biden if political sentiment hadn’t shifted dramatically.”

As the campaign intensifies, it’s evident that the battle for Nevada hinges on door-to-door efforts to sway undecided voters. “We’re currently in the persuasion phase,” explains Jarrett Clark from For Our Future. “We’re optimistic that many will support the Harris-Walz ticket, but some remain undecided.”

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