In a recent interview, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump addressed concerns about U.S. military involvement in Taiwan if China were to invade. Speaking at the Chicago Economic Club on October 15, Trump suggested that under his leadership, “If I’m elected, they [referring to Beijing] won’t do it.” This statement aligns with his previous stance, in which he consistently avoids directly committing to deploying troops to defend Taiwan.
In a June interview with Bloomberg Businessweek, Trump criticized Taiwan for taking business away from the U.S. semiconductor industry, asserting that Taiwan should contribute financially to America’s defense efforts. Later, during a September interview with a columnist from The Washington Post, he reiterated that he believes China would refrain from attacking Taiwan while he is in office, although he warned that hostilities may eventually arise. Trump described Taiwan’s situation as “very tricky,” noting the significant geographical distance—9,000 miles (approximately 14,000 kilometers) from the U.S. compared to just 100 miles (about 160 kilometers) from China. He expressed hope that Taiwan’s leaders would substantially increase their defense investments over the next four years, advocating for military spending to reach 10% of Taiwan’s GDP.
Currently, Taiwan’s defense budget stands at NT$606.8 billion, which is about 2.5% of its GDP. The Executive Yuan has proposed a defense budget of NT$647 billion for the upcoming year, maintaining a similar GDP percentage.
When asked on October 15 whether Taiwan should pay for U.S. protection, Trump confidently affirmed the notion. During the interview, host John Micklethwait, editor-in-chief of Bloomberg, pointed out that the Chinese military had just concluded exercises simulating a complete blockade of Taiwan. He pressed Trump on whether he would send U.S. forces to defend Taiwan if China were to launch an attack. Trump responded, “The reason they’re [Beijing] doing what they’re doing now is that they won’t do it after I’m elected.”